Hospital expenditure at the end-of-life: what are the impacts of health status and health risks?

Background: It is important for health policy and expenditure projections to understand the relationship between age, death and expenditure on health care (HC). Research has shown that older age groups incur lower hospital costs than previously anticipated and that remaining time to death (TTD) was a much stronger indicator for expenditure than age. How health behaviour or risk factors impact on HC utilisation and costs at the end of life is relatively unknown. Smoking and Body Mass Index (BMI) have featured most prominently and mixed findings exist as to the exact nature of this association.<p></p> Methods: This paper considers the relationship between TTD, age and expenditure for inpatient care in the last 12 quarters of life; and introduces measures of health status and risks. A longitudinal dataset covering 35 years is utilised, including baseline survey data linked to hospital and death records. The effect of age, TTD and health indicators on expenditure for inpatient care is estimated using a two-part model.<p></p> Results: As individuals approach death costs increase. This effect is highly significant (p<0.01) from the last until the 8th quarter before death and influenced by age. Statistically significant effects on costs were found for: smoking status, systolic blood pressure and lung function (FEV1). On average, smokers incurred lower quarterly costs in their last 12 quarters of life than non-smokers (~7%). Participants’ BMI at baseline did show a negative association with probability of HC utilisation however this effect disappeared when costs were estimated.<p></p> Conclusions: Health risk measures obtained at baseline provide a good indication of individuals’ probability of needing medical attention later in life and incurring costs, despite the small size of the effect. Utilising a linked dataset, where such measures are available can add substantially to our ability to explain the relationship between TTD and costs.<p></p&gt

Does smoking reduction in midlife reduce mortality risk? Results of 2 long-term prospective cohort studies of men and women in Scotland

A long-term cohort study of working men in Israel found that smokers who reduced their cigarette consumption had lower subsequent mortality rates than those who did not. We conducted comparable analyses in 2 populations of smokers in Scotland. The Collaborative Study included 1,524 men and women aged 40–65 years in a working population who were screened twice, in 1970–1973 and 1977. The Renfrew/Paisley Study included 3,730 men and women aged 45–64 years in a general population who were screened twice, in 1972–1976 and 1977–1979. Both groups were followed up through 2010. Subjects were categorized by smoking intensity at each screening as smoking 0, 1–10, 11–20, or ≥21 cigarettes per day. At the second screening, subjects were categorized as having increased, maintained, or reduced their smoking intensity or as having quit smoking between the first and second screenings. There was no evidence of lower mortality in all reducers compared with maintainers. Multivariate adjusted hazard ratios of mortality were 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.75, 1.10) in the Collaborative Study and 1.08 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.20) in the Renfrew/Paisley Study. There was clear evidence of lower mortality among quitters in both the Collaborative Study (hazard ratio = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.78) and the Renfrew/Paisley Study (hazard ratio = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.67, 0.84). In the Collaborative Study only, we observed lower mortality similar to that of quitters among heavy smokers (≥21 cigarettes/day) who reduced their smoking intensity. These inconclusive results support the view that reducing cigarette consumption should not be promoted as a means of reducing mortality, although it may have a valuable role as a step toward smoking cessation

Cause specific mortality, social position, and obesity among women who had never smoked: 28 year cohort study

Objective To investigate the relations between causes of death, social position, and obesity in women who had never smoked

Prediction of cardiovascular disease risk by cardiac biomarkers in 2 United Kingdom cohort studies: does utility depend on risk thresholds for treatment?

We tested the predictive ability of cardiac biomarkers N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity troponin T, and midregional pro adrenomedullin for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events using the British Regional Heart Study (BRHS) of men aged 60 to 79 years, and the MIDSPAN Family Study (MFS) of men and women aged 30 to 59 years. They included 3757 and 2226 participants, respectively, and during median 13.0 and 17.3 years follow-up the primary CVD event rates were 16.6 and 5.3 per 1000 patient-years, respectively. In Cox models adjusted for basic classical risk factors, 1 SD increases in log-transformed NT-proBNP, high-sensitivity troponin T, and midregional pro adrenomedullin were generally associated with increased primary CVD risk in both the studies (P<0.006) except midregional pro adrenomedullin in MFS (P=0.10). In BRHS, QRISK2 risk factors yielded a C-index of 0.657, which was improved by 0.017 (P=0.005) by NT-proBNP, but not by other biomarkers. Using 28% 14-year risk as a proxy for 20% 10-year risk, NT-proBNP improved risk classification for primary CVD cases (case net reclassification index, 5.9%; 95% confidence interval, 2.8%–9.2%), but only improved classification of noncases at a 14% 14-year risk threshold (4.6%; 2.9%–6.3%). In MFS, ASSIGN risk factors yielded a C-index of 0.752 for primary CVD; none of the cardiac biomarkers improved the C-index. Improvements in risk classification were only seen using NT-proBNP and high-sensitivity troponin T among cases using the 28% 14-year risk threshold (4.7%; 1.0%–9.2% and 2.6%; 0.0%–5.8%, respectively). In conclusion, the improvement in treatment allocation gained by adding cardiac biomarkers to risk scores seems to depend on the risk threshold chosen for commencing preventative treatments

Childhood IQ and marriage by mid-life: the Scottish Mental Survey 1932 and the Midspan Studies

The study examined the influence of IQ at age 11 years on marital status by mid-adulthood. The combined databases of the Scottish Mental Survey 1932 and the Midspan studies provided data from 883 subjects. With regard to IQ at age 11, there was an interaction between sex and marital status by mid-adulthood (p = 0.0001). Women who had ever-married achieved mean lower childhood IQ scores than women who had never-married (p < 0.001). Conversely, there was a trend for men who had ever-married to achieve higher childhood IQ scores than men who had never-married (p = 0.07). In men, the odds ratio of ever marrying was 1.35 (95% CI 0.98–1.86&#59; p = 0.07) for each standard deviation increase in childhood IQ. Among women, the odds ratio of ever marrying by mid-life was 0.42 (95% CI 0.27–0.64; p = 0.0001) for each standard deviation increase in childhood IQ. Mid-life social class had a similar association with marriage, with women in more professional jobs and men in more manual jobs being less likely to have ever-married by mid-life. Adjustment for the effects of mid-life social class and height on the association between childhood IQ and later marriage, and vice versa, attenuated the effects somewhat, but suggested that IQ, height and social class acted partly independently

Effect of body mass index and alcohol consumption on liver disease: analysis of data from two prospective cohort studies

Objective To investigate whether alcohol consumption and raised body mass index (BMI) act together to increase risk of liver disease

Coffee consumption and prostate cancer risk: further evidence for inverse relationship

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Higher consumption of coffee intake has recently been linked with reduced risk of aggressive prostate cancer (PC) incidence, although meta-analysis of other studies that examine the association between coffee consumption and overall PC risk remains inconclusive. Only one recent study investigated the association between coffee intake and grade-specific incidence of PC, further evidence is required to understand the aetiology of aggressive PCs. Therefore, we conducted a prospective study to examine the relationship between coffee intake and overall as well as grade-specific PC risk.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a prospective cohort study of 6017 men who were enrolled in the Collaborative cohort study in the UK between 1970 and 1973 and followed up to 31st December 2007. Cox Proportional Hazards Models were used to evaluate the association between coffee consumption and overall, as well as Gleason grade-specific, PC incidence.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Higher coffee consumption was inversely associated with risk of high grade but not with overall risk of PC. Men consuming 3 or more cups of coffee per day experienced 55% lower risk of high Gleason grade disease compared with non-coffee drinkers in analysis adjusted for age and social class (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.23-0.90, p value for trend 0.01). This association changed a little after additional adjustment for Body Mass Index, smoking, cholesterol level, systolic blood pressure, tea intake and alcohol consumption.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Coffee consumption reduces the risk of aggressive PC but not the overall risk.</p

Intergenerational social mobility and mid-life status attainment: influences of childhood intelligence, childhood social factors, and education

We examined the influences of childhood social background, childhood cognitive ability, and education on intergenerational social mobility and social status attainment at midlife. The subjects were men born in 1921 and who participated in the Scottish Mental Survey of 1932 and thereafter in the Midspan Collaborative study in Scotland between 1970 and 1973. In logistic regression analyses, childhood cognitive ability and height were associated with upward and downward change from father's social class to participant's social class at mid-life. Education significantly influenced upward social mobility. Number of siblings had no significant effect on social mobility. These effects were also examined after adjusting for the other variables. In structural equation modelling analyses, father's social class and childhood cognitive ability influenced social status attainment at midlife, with education and occupational status in young adulthood as partially mediating factors. It was noteworthy that childhood cognitive ability related more strongly to occupation in midlife than to first occupation. These data add to the relatively few studies that track the process of status attainment in adulthood, they provide information from a new geographical setting, and they contain information from a greater proportion of the lifecourse than do most existing studies

Cholesterol and the risk of grade-specific prostate cancer incidence: evidence from two large prospective cohort studies with up to 37 years' follow up

&lt;b&gt;Background&lt;/b&gt; High cholesterol may be a modifiable risk factor for prostate cancer but results have been inconsistent and subject to potential "reverse causality" where undetected disease modifies cholesterol prior to diagnosis.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Methods&lt;/b&gt; We conducted a prospective cohort study of 12,926 men who were enrolled in the Midspan studies between 1970 and 1976 and followed up to 31st December 2007. We used Cox-Proportional Hazards Models to evaluate the association between baseline plasma cholesterol and Gleason grade-specific prostate cancer incidence. We excluded cancers detected within at least 5 years of cholesterol assay.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Results&lt;/b&gt; 650 men developed prostate cancer in up to 37 years' follow-up. Baseline plasma cholesterol was positively associated with hazard of high grade (Gleason score[greater than or equal to]8) prostate cancer incidence (n=119). The association was greatest among men in the 4th highest quintile for cholesterol, 6.1 to &#60;6.69 mmol/l, Hazard Ratio 2.28, 95% CI 1.27 to 4.10, compared with the baseline of &#60;5.05 mmol/l. This association remained significant after adjustment for body mass index, smoking and socioeconomic status.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Conclusions&lt;/b&gt; Men with higher cholesterol are at greater risk of developing high-grade prostate cancer but not overall risk of prostate cancer. Interventions to minimise metabolic risk factors may have a role in reducing incidence of aggressive prostate cancer

Circulating 250HD, dietary vitamin D, PTH, and calcium associations with incident cardiovascular disease and mortality: The MIDSPAN Family Study

&lt;p&gt;Context: Observational studies relating circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) and dietary vitamin D intake to cardiovascular disease (CVD) have reported conflicting results.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Objective: Our objective was to investigate the association of 25OHD, dietary vitamin D, PTH, and adjusted calcium with CVD and mortality in a Scottish cohort.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Design and Setting: TheMIDSPAN Family Study is a prospective study of 1040 men and 1298 women from the West of Scotland recruited in 1996 and followed up for a median 14.4 yr. Participants: Locally resident adult offspring of a general population cohort were recruited from 1972–1976.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Main Outcome Measures: CVD events (n &#61; 416) and all-cause mortality (n&#61;100) were evaluated.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Results: 25OHD was measured using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry in available plasma (n&#61;2081). Median plasma 25OHD was 18.6 ng/ml, and median vitamin D intake was 3.2 &#181; g/d (128 IU/d). Vitamin D deficiency (25OHD&#60;15 ng/ml) was present in 689 participants (33.1%). There was no evidence that dietary vitamin D intake, PTH, or adjusted calcium were associated with CVD events or with mortality. Vitamin D deficiency was not associated with CVD (fully adjusted hazard ratio&#61;1.00; 95% confidence interval&#61;0.77–1.31). Results were similar after excluding patients who reported an activity-limiting longstanding illness at baseline (18.8%) and those taking any vitamin supplements (21.7%). However, there was some evidence vitamin D deficiency was associated with all-cause mortality (fully adjusted hazard ratio&#61;2.02; 95% confidence interval&#61;1.17–3.51).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusion: Vitamin D deficiency was not associated with risk of CVD in this cohort with very low 25OHD. Future trials of vitamin D supplementation in middle-aged cohorts should be powered to detect differences inmortality outcomes as well as CVD.(J Clin EndocrinolMetab97: 0000 –0000, 2012)&lt;/p&gt